Predicting Air Travelers’ No-show and Standby Behavior Using Passenger and Directional Itinerary Information

This is the first study of airline travelers’ no-show and standby behavior based on passenger and directional outbound/inbound itinerary data. The paper describes passengers’ behavior based on estimation of a multinomial logit model for domestic U.S. itineraries departing in March 2001 or March 2002. This enables us to explore behavioral differences based on passenger and itinerary characteristics as well as identify differences in rescheduling behavior occurring after September 11, 2001. Benefits of using passenger data to improve forecasting accuracy and support a broad range of managerial decisions are described.